It’s time. 

The 2024 growing season has arrived — and as you make final adjustments before your planter hits the field, you begin thinking about the future:

“What will this season look like? What should I be aware of? What factors will drive my decision-making this year?”

You may not have a crystal ball, but our team has pooled their experience and created a list of seven main factors that will define the 2024 growing season.

Let’s dig in.

Key Points: 

• While it’s impossible to predict every twist and turn of a growing season, there are a few key factors that will impact 2024 for farmers.
• Climate considerations, like drought and high temperatures will play big roles, especially throughout the Corn Belt. 
• Planting timing and disease pressure (particularly with corn rootworm) could also affect eventually 2024 yields. 
• There are also important macro market trends to keep an eye on, like input costs, commodity prices and supply and demand.

What’s the water situation?

Growing season precipitation will be a central question driving many decisions this year.

Will it be too wet in Michigan? Will it be too dry in Kansas? What will happen in the southern states?

Late this past fall, many areas from the High Plains to the Deep South experienced exceptional drought conditions. But when winter arrived, a lot of that changed.

By mid-winter, many areas in Missouri, Nebraska and Kansas finally got some precipitation. However, by late winter, the drought map began to sink back in and expand — not to the level of fall 2023, but the U.S. Drought Monitor began showing more color across the western Corn Belt.

Most of the eastern Corn Belt was doing okay once spring arrived, but some areas, like northeastern Iowa, stayed dry throughout the winter and showed little change in the drought situation.

What does this mean for 2024? The water table in those winter-dry areas is still parched, yet much of the eastern growing areas will enter the planting season with sufficient moisture. 

Water will be a major factor during the 2024 season, and its impact will depend on your farm's location.

What’s the heat situation?

Similar to drought, what Mother Nature decides to do with heat will significantly impact crops in 2024.

As a warm-season grass species, corn thrives in warm temperatures. Too much heat at the wrong time of day, however, can negatively affect your crop. 

Corn plants work hard all day, producing sugars through photosynthesis. As night arrives and temps taper off, much of that sugar is converted to starch and other carbohydrates — a recipe for full ears.

Yet when overnight temperatures remain in the 70s and 80s, the corn plant continues to respirate (use energy) at an increased level. As the plant uses more sugar, less of it converts to starch and ears don’t fill.

That leads to decreased yields.

Warm nights are not good on corn plants, especially around pollination time. Plants need a break. They need a chance to relax and store energy. 

So, what can we expect this growing season? According to the National Weather Service (NWS), it’s probably going to be hot.

Throughout the growing season, NWS predicts that the entire Corn Belt will likely experience warmer than normal temperatures. Early in the season, the Eastern Corn Belt states are more likely to be on the warm side, but as the season progresses, that 40-50% chance of “leaning above” expands into pretty much the whole Corn Belt, save Minnesota and the Dakotas.

You can’t control temperatures, but monitoring the weather throughout the growing season will help you understand what to expect come harvest time.

What do input costs look like?

Increased input costs have wreaked havoc on farmers over the past few years. Last year brought some relief, but input costs are expected to rise again this year.

According to the USDA, farmers can expect cost increases for labor, fertilizer, pesticides and interest payments. Some of these rises aren’t expected to be much over 2023 levels, but an increase is still an increase.

This doesn’t mean the farm inputs situation will be the same for all farmers. Each farmer has a unique situation, and decisions should be based on that specific set of circumstances.

Some farmers are cutting back on fertilizer applications. Based on soil test results, some fields may have enough nutrients left in the soil to sneak by for a year, but this is not the case for every farmer.

With net farm income expected to drop in 2024, cutting costs is something all farmers are considering. Yet making the right decision for your farm is key. What is your ROI on applying fertilizer? Based on your soil test results, is cutting back worth it, or do you need those extra nutrients to ensure a good crop? 

Amidst the talk of rising costs, there is some good news: fuel prices are expected to drop this year.

What do the markets look like?

This is a loaded question that will depend on many factors. Weather, politics, global harvests and international conflict will all play a role.

However, supply and demand will largely depend on this: how many acres will we plant?

According to the USDA, farmers are expected to grow 5% less corn and 3% more soybeans in 2024 compared to 2023 levels.

What does this mean for markets? Commodity prices are expected to be down this year, but these estimates are just that — estimates. Planters are just starting to roll out, so we don’t really know what will be planted.

One thing is for sure: the number of planted acres will drive supply and demand in 2024.

What will happen with corn rootworm this year?

To put it simply, corn rootworm will likely be a problem this growing season.

Due to last year’s dry weather, the corn rootworm map expanded across the Corn Belt, and that will cause issues for 2024, especially in corn-on-corn operations.

According to the Bayer Crop Science corn rootworm study, over 50% of fields sampled last year had corn rootworm issues above the economic threshold, and the prevalence of the pest and its impact increased across the board.

Plus, the mild winter will result in a lot of surviving eggs.

According to the study, Iowa, eastern Nebraska, southern Wisconsin and southern Minnesota are at the greatest risk in 2024. 

Here’s the bottom line: it’s going to be an issue. Know your risk, scout for the pest and have a mitigation plan in place.

How will timing affect the 2024 season?

Based largely on weather patterns, the timing of 2024 planting will determine the progress of the remainder of the season.

Farmers are already planting, while some are still waiting. “Earlier is better” is a typical mantra, but if you jump the gun, will it hurt you this season? 

Starting early often means wrapping up early, but that’s all weather-dependent. Planning ahead for weather patterns, considering your seed traits and treatments, and being aware of your insurance dates should drive your planting decisions.

Will disease be a problem?

What will be the disease to watch this year? It will depend on Mother Nature. 

Tar spot expanded its footprint last year, but its overall impact was relatively suppressed. Will physoderma be an issue? We’ll have to see, and agronomists will be ready to tackle the issues.

Solid genetics will help protect you against disease risk. Twenty years ago, gray leaf spot was a major problem. Now, with more targeted genetics, it’s of little concern. However, diseases are cyclical, and you and your agronomist need to be ready for what may lie ahead. Having a plan in place is key and will put you in a good spot to mitigate impact.

A successful growing season will depend on many factors. Only some of them you can control. But beng prepared and planning ahead is always a good idea — and you can guarantee that your LG Seeds agronomist will be by your side every step of the way.